Saturday, 27 March 2010

How Gordon Brown's podcast turned an immigration rise into a fall

By James Slack

Labour last night faced damaging claims it had 'misled' the public by claiming immigration is falling sharply - when it is likely be on the rise again.

In a rare intervention, Gordon Brown yesterday released figures which he claimed showed a steep 16,000 reduction in the net level of immigration into Britain last year.

It was the centrepiece of an internet broadcast by the Prime Minister designed to reassure voters that the Government is listening to public concerns about the population soaring towards 70million.

But it has now emerged Mr Brown's claims were produced by using two completely different sets of statistics which should not be compared. In fact, analysis suggests he is likely to have underestimated the net level of immigration to the UK last year by more than 35,000.

That would make the total figure for 2009 more than 20,000 higher than in the previous 12 months. Sir Andrew Green, chairman of Migrationwatch UK, said Mr Brown's podcast had used 'misleading figures'. He added: 'The net immigration figure for the calendar year 2009 could well show an increase, not a fall. So the PM has got his immigration numbers seriously wrong.'

The controversy stems from a detailed passage in yesterday's podcast - which was itself a response to canvassers reporting deep public unhappiness with Government immigration policies.

Mr Brown said: 'Doing the right thing for jobs and for a strong economy - and ensuring fairness for hard working families - is the central theme of this week's Budget.

'But I recognise that among the concerns you must address when you talk of fairness is immigration.

'Some people talk as if net inward migration is rising. In fact, it is falling - down from 237,000 in 2007, to 163,000 in 2008, to provisional figures of 147,000 last year.'

The first two statistics - for 2007 and 2008 - are complete totals from the Long Term International Migration study, approved by the Office for National Statistics. But the 2009 figure - used to give the impression of a steep fall in arrivals - is only a partial figure, compiled from the different International Passenger Survey.

Not only is it provisional, it does not include asylum seekers, long-term arrivals from Ireland and people who travel to Britain as visitors then decide to stay.

On average, based on previous years, the ONS estimates 38,000 will be added to the figure quoted for 2009 by Mr Brown - which would give a final total of 185,000 - up by more than 10 per cent.

That would mean that - even in recession - migration to the UK once again began to rise.

Shadow immigration minister Damian Green said: 'After 13 years of an open door immigration policy Gordon Brown now admits we need controls.

'His Government has not offered any serious controls, so Britain will have to wait for a Conservative government to introduce an annual limit on work permits, effective controls on student visa abuse, restrictions on those coming here to get married, and a Border Police Force.'

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